Starting to get nervous

lotsoskiinglotsoskiing expert
in NELSAP Forum Posts: 753
Incredible weekend for mt. biking and hiking, but 70 during the day and 40 at night will not cut it for snowmaking. Long range forecast is pretty warm: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

Anyone else getting nervous about start of snowmaking in NE? I imagine Killington is starting to get a little nervous. I know they can get it covered fast, but has to be ready a week ahead of time.

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Comments

  • slathamslatham advanced
    Posts: 152
    Nope. Rather have it unusually warm in October than core of winter. And there are strong indications for a patten change, in a series of step-downs temp wise, starting this week. In 8-10 days it could be a whole different situation.
  • joshua_segaljoshua_segal expert
    Posts: 1,809
    It's been my experience that a major early snow storm before Veteran's Day foreshadows a horrible season. I would love to be skiing right now, but I'm not worried yet.
  • lotsoskiinglotsoskiing expert
    Posts: 753
    Not looking for a storm, just snowmaking temps after Nov. 1.
  • ADKskierADKskier advanced
    Posts: 245
    Look for accumulating snow Monday night into tuesday. Warm doesn't bother me in October mid November. Helps me get stuff done around the house, and yard before that Ole Man winter gets really fired up.
    ~Rich~
  • DrJeffDrJeff advanced
    Posts: 298
    My nervousness factor nowadays doesn't ramp up until the 2nd week of November and still no sign of any decent cold weather in the forecast.....
  • lotsoskiinglotsoskiing expert
    Posts: 753
    ADKskier said:

    Look for accumulating snow Monday night into tuesday. Warm doesn't bother me in October mid November. Helps me get stuff done around the house, and yard before that Ole Man winter gets really fired up.

    Where? I see torrential rain and wind, and lows in 40's at high elevation (4000' +). Wish it weren't so and will eat crow if I see pictures of snowy NE peaks on Wed.
  • mtsnow123mtsnow123 advanced
    Posts: 326
    I think Killington should be feeling nervous with the World Cup in a month. Last year (10/22/16) I was hiking up Stowe and earning my turns on man made. 
  • ADKskierADKskier advanced
    Posts: 245

    ADKskier said:

    Look for accumulating snow Monday night into tuesday. Warm doesn't bother me in October mid November. Helps me get stuff done around the house, and yard before that Ole Man winter gets really fired up.

    Where? I see torrential rain and wind, and lows in 40's at high elevation (4000' +). Wish it weren't so and will eat crow if I see pictures of snowy NE peaks on Wed.


    06z run showed accumulating snow in Adirondacks mon night into Tuesday, now looking like a big rain maker on latest run. Still lots of time for things to cool down. I will remain optimistic for a few more weeks and hopefully this pattern breaks.
    ~Rich~
  • ADKskierADKskier advanced
    Posts: 245
    I follow this guy, seems to do a good job calling things.

    http://www.ilsnow.com/
    ~Rich~
  • Posts: 2,012
    ADKskier said:

    I follow this guy, seems to do a good job calling things.

    http://www.ilsnow.com/


    Here's the fixed link: http://www.ilsnow.com/
    - Sam
  • DrJeffDrJeff advanced
    Posts: 298
    mtsnow123 said:

    I think Killington should be feeling nervous with the World Cup in a month. Last year (10/22/16) I was hiking up Stowe and earning my turns on man made. 

    With how much firepower Killington has on Superstar, and the long range trend for a pattern shift and colder air arriving in the next week to 10 days, I'm guessing they're not too worried at the moment.  If they haven't been able to fire up top 2 bottom on Superstar in 2 weeks, then the worry factor will be high for Killington
  • lotsoskiinglotsoskiing expert
    Posts: 753
    DrJeff said:

    mtsnow123 said:

    I think Killington should be feeling nervous with the World Cup in a month. Last year (10/22/16) I was hiking up Stowe and earning my turns on man made. 

    With how much firepower Killington has on Superstar, and the long range trend for a pattern shift and colder air arriving in the next week to 10 days, I'm guessing they're not too worried at the moment.  If they haven't been able to fire up top 2 bottom on Superstar in 2 weeks, then the worry factor will be high for Killington
    I think they need 3 days round the clock in good temps to cover t2b to proper depth. Then a day or two to work it, and then all has to be approved a week before the event. Will be tight....fingers and toes crossed.
  • ADKskierADKskier advanced
    Posts: 245

    ADKskier said:

    I follow this guy, seems to do a good job calling things.

    http://www.ilsnow.com/


    Here's the fixed link: http://www.ilsnow.com/
    Thanks!
    ~Rich~
  • joshua_segaljoshua_segal expert
    Posts: 1,809
    In the 2009-2010 season, the entire eastern ski industry lost the Thanksgiving weekend and most of the "early season players" didn't open until the 2nd week of December.  

    Now that was one of the first post-ASC years at Killington and they weren't trying for an early season opening.  It's not clear whether Killington would have made Thanksgiving if they tried for every snow making window as they have been doing now.

    The point is, it's happened before; it certainly could happen again, but I still see no reason to panic
  • newpylongnewpylong expert
    Posts: 565

    DrJeff said:

    mtsnow123 said:

    I think Killington should be feeling nervous with the World Cup in a month. Last year (10/22/16) I was hiking up Stowe and earning my turns on man made. 

    With how much firepower Killington has on Superstar, and the long range trend for a pattern shift and colder air arriving in the next week to 10 days, I'm guessing they're not too worried at the moment.  If they haven't been able to fire up top 2 bottom on Superstar in 2 weeks, then the worry factor will be high for Killington
    I think they need 3 days round the clock in good temps to cover t2b to proper depth. Then a day or two to work it, and then all has to be approved a week before the event. Will be tight....fingers and toes crossed.

    Superstar is ~25 acres. Superstar needs 48" for the Cup. 180,000 gallons of water for each acre/foot is the commonly used number.

    50 acre feet of snow required so 9 million gallons of water. They pump ~3500 GPM up Superstar in ideal temps.

    About 42 hours by the book, but I would say 72 hours of 15 deg wet bulb they could cover Superstar. Though, you really don't get that in November.

    They also can simultaneously push about 3,000 GPM up Skye Lark as well.

    If anyone can do it they can, but the temps better drop pretty soon.
  • slathamslatham advanced
    Posts: 152

    Let look at a couple of facts.

    Its October 25th.

    November is still a full week away.

    There are 25 days until the "one week prior" inspection.

    Conclusion - there is a ton of time.

    Not to mention the forecast models and longer range indicators are all showing a turn to colder weather. If everything pointed to the same old pattern for the next month, that would be a different story.

  • Bill29Bill29 advanced
    Posts: 243
    Someone on a recent radio broadcast - perhaps a weather report, I don't know because I was just half-listening - said NOAA predicts that this winter in the Northeast will be somewhat warmer than average. Anyone else heard that? Others say colder and snowier than average, or about average. Any weather boffins out there want to add to the confusion? This is the traditional time to do it
  • lotsoskiinglotsoskiing expert
    Posts: 753
    There is an old Bavarian saying that goes:

    If October is warm and fine, then a hard (ie- cold and snowy) winter will follow.
    If October is wet and cool, then winter will be mild.

    By my observation, October has been quite warm and fine, so let's hope.
  • z1000307470z1000307470 advanced
    Posts: 100
    Bill29 said:

    Someone on a recent radio broadcast - perhaps a weather report, I don't know because I was just half-listening - said NOAA predicts that this winter in the Northeast will be somewhat warmer than average. Anyone else heard that? Others say colder and snowier than average, or about average. Any weather boffins out there want to add to the confusion? This is the traditional time to do it

    http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-noaa-forecasters-predict-cooler-wetter-north-and-warmer-drier-south
  • newpylongnewpylong expert
    Posts: 565
    I tend to go with NOAA's predictions. If they hold true, we could be in for a similar winter as last year (weak La Nina). 
  • slathamslatham advanced
    edited October 24 Posts: 152
    First off that NOAA report is not a forecast. It's is assessing the probability of normal, below normal, or above normal precipitation and temps. A forecast is more specific, like the temperature in the North East will average 1 degree below normal. Accuweather and Weatherbell (and others) put out long range forecasts.

    There are a lot of details and caveats in the long range forecasts, but the two mentioned above both agree that it will be colder and snowier in the Northeast than last year. Could it be warmer than normal? Yes, but .25 of a degree above normal and 140% of average snowfall works for me.

    Also, this year is forecast to be a La Niña winter (already started by some measures), but a stronger one than last year. And last year the pattern was overwhelmed by the Pacifc jet, which negatively impacted the NE. This is not setting up like last year.

    I think we are in for an above average snow year with normal-ish temps. But how the pattern evolves over the next couple of weeks, and how the sea surface temps evolve over the next month, will be very telling.
  • obienickobienick expert
    Posts: 938
    Killington made most of the snow for the WC in about a week IIRC.

    Still too soon to get nervous.  The pattern will change.  Long-range climatology models are showin
  • RemskiRemski advanced
    Posts: 362
    Well it will take a miracle to pull off October Skiing this Year but I'm not throwing in the towel yet on that. This weather really has an affect on some SJ'ers, but look at it this way. We're 20 degrees cooler than last week. The extended fair weather pattern has helped greatly with the resorts getting spiffed up for the coming seasons (winter& spring). Temps are coming down and before you know it SNOWMAKING will commence. And now we'll have plenty of water for all that SNOWMAKING.
  • slathamslatham advanced
    Posts: 152
    Yes October skiing in the NE would require something pretty close to a miracle. Not completely out of the question but almost....
  • BaldhillBaldhill novice
    Posts: 1
    Surprised no post yet. Snowing on Killington Peak today.
  • slathamslatham advanced
    Posts: 152
    Busy afternoon so not watching, but you are right. FB page has pick. At 7:46 this evening at 3,100' on Stratton it was 32 and snowing. Bring-it-on!
  • joshua_segaljoshua_segal expert
    Posts: 1,809
    slatham said:

    Busy afternoon so not watching, but you are right. FB page has pick. At 7:46 this evening at 3,100' on Stratton it was 32 and snowing. Bring-it-on!

    They're expecting a foot at Stowe tonight and I suspect it is snowing the entire spine of Rt. 100.
  • joshua_segaljoshua_segal expert
    Posts: 1,809
    Any word on who got snow and how much last night (Oct. 26)?
  • RemskiRemski advanced
    Posts: 362
    Cannon, Stowe, Killington, Mt. Washington
    And I think I see some snowmaking on upper Rime starting this morning but I’m not 100% sure.
  • ski_itski_it expert
    Posts: 1,741

    Looking at the KPeak 360 cam it looks a dusting to 2" at best. Mansfield's upper cam is in the clouds still.

    ISNE-I Skied New England | NESAP-the New England Ski Area Project | SOSA-Saving Our Ski Areas - Location SW of Boston MA
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