Rating the 2017-2018 Season Versus the Last 11 Years

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Comments

  • joshua_segaljoshua_segal expert
    Posts: 1,998
    Pretty serious rain event in most of New England east of the CT River and south of Killington.  I think to date we are looking at a below average season - perhaps somewhere between 6 and 8.
  • 4aprice4aprice advanced
    Posts: 127
    Season taking a big dive.  Another lost weekend coming up.  (3rd shot weekend already this season)  Projected ski days down from 40 days to below 35 already and probably looking at more with the forecasts I'm seeing.  I can't wait to get out of here and move west.

    Alex

    Lake Hopatcong, NJ
  • JonniJonni intermediate
    Posts: 42
    I dunno, this weekend still looks awesome for Central and Northern VT. Here's Bolton's forecast from NWS:


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  • CannonballCannonball advanced
    Posts: 173
    8-12" across most of ski country in the past 48hrs.  Another few inches forecast for Fri/Sat.  Many resorts at 100% open (or nearly).   Seems pretty good to me. 
  • 4aprice4aprice advanced
    Posts: 127

    8-12" across most of ski country in the past 48hrs.  Another few inches forecast for Fri/Sat.  Many resorts at 100% open (or nearly).   Seems pretty good to me. 

    You have access to Cannon and probably the true north will make out ok (though you may taint with some sleet).  I can and do make it to Loon but need to get the wife out of work early on Friday for that drive and that wasn't the plan for this weekend (we go the 1st weekend in March) .  The forecasts I'm seeing are not so kind for S Vermont (where I wanted to go) and even worse for anything south (taking out the day tripping and backyard).  Not worth the money IMO.  For those of you far enough north more power to you.  Its snowing in Colorado this weekend too and I won't get there either.  

    Not giving up on the season (spring is always the best part) but losing what now appears to be a 3rd total weekend (+ 1 one day weekend) knocks it down quite a few pegs in my book.  

    Alex

    Lake Hopatcong, NJ


  • joshua_segaljoshua_segal expert
    edited February 8 Posts: 1,998

    8-12" across most of ski country in the past 48hrs.  Another few inches forecast for Fri/Sat.  Many resorts at 100% open (or nearly).   Seems pretty good to me. 

    Every season has some great storms and if you cherry pick your days, every season is a great season.  For the 60-day a year crowd and up, we ski when it rains, when it's foggy, when it's windy, when it's well below zero and well above 60 degrees.  (We also ski the "cherry-picked" days.) In this thread, I am hoping to be evaluating the bigger picture.

    For example, it's not just a snow storm, but how many days will that snow last before the next weather event comes along?
  • slathamslatham advanced
    Posts: 173
    My rating is improving.....
  • CannonballCannonball advanced
    edited February 8 Posts: 173

    Every season has some great storms and if you cherry pick your days, every season is a great season.  

    Boy do I wish that were true. 
  • 4aprice4aprice advanced
    Posts: 127
    I don't think Cannonball "cherry picks" his days.  Following him over the years he's pretty hardcore, but, he has put himself in a good position.  I've been up there when just driving up through the notch puts one in a winter wonderland.  More power to him.

    My rant is from the prospective a weekend warrior from the flatlands trying to get his skiing fix in.   Not so good right now for me.  And I try to stay positive but get frustrated.  Still am looking forward to and have high hopes for good spring season.  Having this weekends plans go up in smoke is a set back though.

    Alex

    Lake Hopatcong, NJ
  • CannonballCannonball advanced
    edited February 9 Posts: 173
    I feel your pain Alex. I haven't skied in 3 weeks either. Some crappy weather, some work commitments, and 8 days in bed with the flu have put me out of commission. In fact I was already checked in to my flight to Utah last Friday when I had to cancel due to sickness and crawl back in bed. Talk about frustrating! My comment about the recent and upcoming snowfall was only meant to point out that we seem to be going in the right direction. After the bad hit we took in January we were either going to turn it around and salvage something, or it was going straight into the toilet for an epically bad season. I disagree with Joshua that they can all be great seasons....I sure remember some terrible ones! The weekend ahead is a mixed bag but it's not all bad news.

    Hope we both get out there soon!
  • riverc0ilriverc0il advanced
    edited February 10 Posts: 286
    I agree with Cannonball. I am a cherry picker and there have been some abysmal seasons recently. This is not one of them. 

    I didn't ski a single day in January (both due to weather and work) which is the first time that has happened in over 20 years, I think (excepting the year I broke my elbow). But this is far from a horrible season as it stands right now. No where near the top either. But on the upper side of the lower end with only half the season done (and that is strictly speaking for the resorts that have standard opening and closing dates, not counting K or earned turn late season). 

    Even with a minor setback of some rain and mixed on Sunday, we now have a solid base pretty much everywhere and we are one big storm away from all terrain options being open everywhere with good conditions. While not the ultimate authority on how a season is going, the Mansfield stake is currently back above the daily snow depth average. This is definitely not an epic season but not a write off either.

    Or, maybe I'm just feeling better about the season because of how good Thursday was at Cannon. \:D/
  • TreillyTreilly advanced
    Posts: 233
    Here in Metro Detroit ibwoild say this has been an ok season. The last two season the Ski areas had to start over at least twice with snowmaking and last year they basically had to to start over after presidents week just to make to March. This season it shouldn’t be a problem to make till March
  • 4aprice4aprice advanced
    edited February 10 Posts: 127
    riverc0il said:

    I agree with Cannonball. I am a cherry picker and there have been some abysmal seasons recently. This is not one of them. 


    I didn't ski a single day in January (both due to weather and work) which is the first time that has happened in over 20 years, I think (excepting the year I broke my elbow). But this is far from a horrible season as it stands right now. No where near the top either. But on the upper side of the lower end with only half the season done (and that is strictly speaking for the resorts that have standard opening and closing dates, not counting K or earned turn late season). 

    Even with a minor setback of some rain and mixed on Sunday, we now have a solid base pretty much everywhere and we are one big storm away from all terrain options being open everywhere with good conditions. While not the ultimate authority on how a season is going, the Mansfield stake is currently back above the daily snow depth average. This is definitely not an epic season but not a write off either.

    Or, maybe I'm just feeling better about the season because of how good Thursday was at Cannon. \:D/
    Riv;  Its nice to hear from you and Cannonball with reports that things are pretty good up in the Whites and I agree that this is not going to wipe out the base and may add to it.  I love spring skiing so I am not giving up on the season at all and still have 2+ months before thinking that way.  I say more power to you that you can "cherry pick". Certainly if I was closer I would take all advantage too.

    My lament is that the pieces aren't falling in to place this year as they did last year when I had just a wonderful season.  It's mostly just a case of bad timing for us.  The wife and I were hoping for better days ahead over coffee this morning.

    I can only speak for my own experiences and for me the 1st half (consider 1/2 time about 2 weekends away for me) has been disappointing.  Still got another 1/2 to go and plenty of time for a huge comeback.

    Alex

    Lake Hopatcong, NJ
  • z1000307470z1000307470 advanced
    Posts: 123
    2/10/2018 - Raining at Stratton right now. Conditions are nice and soft, but snow is a better choice.
  • bubblecufferbubblecuffer advanced
    edited February 10 Posts: 278
    I'm sitting here at the AMC lodge in Crawford Notch NH and there is a solid 25"-30" of snow with many layers.  The skiing HAS to be supreme right now.  Waterville, Loon, Cannon, Bretton Woods, even Tenney, all MUST have good natural cover from what I observed coming up here.  Of particular mention is that Franconia Notch is buried at the moment.  Likely more than 30" of snow.  Also worthy of mention, it that it is currently raining lightly, but it would take more than a cold rain to tap this surface.
  • bubblecufferbubblecuffer advanced
    Posts: 278
    Snow stake in Crawford Notch NH.
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  • ski_itski_it expert
    Posts: 1,926
    Thanks for the report, that helps. Are you snowshoeing, hiking, XC or other?
    ISNE-I Skied New England | NESAP-the New England Ski Area Project | SOSA-Saving Our Ski Areas - Location SW of Boston MA
  • bubblecufferbubblecuffer advanced
    Posts: 278
    ski_it said:

    Thanks for the report, that helps. Are you snowshoeing, hiking, XC or other?

    I am here snowshoeing with a group of scouts. Hiking trails were also excellent today. What little hiking I can do, it was great.

  • CannonballCannonball advanced
    Posts: 173
    Cannon today was phenomenal. I've missed some key weeks this year so I'm not going to claim that the woods were in the best shape of the season....but I will claim that they are they best I have seen them this season. Upper mountain glades were DEEP and soft. Off map glades were absolutely buried!

    Also, this is a completely non-skiing metric, but I've owned my house in Lincoln NH since 2012. Right now there is currently much more snow in my yard than I've ever seen.


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  • 4aprice4aprice advanced
    Posts: 127

    Cannon today was phenomenal. I've missed some key weeks this year so I'm not going to claim that the woods were in the best shape of the season....but I will claim that they are they best I have seen them this season. Upper mountain glades were DEEP and soft. Off map glades were absolutely buried!

    Also, this is a completely non-skiing metric, but I've owned my house in Lincoln NH since 2012. Right now there is currently much more snow in my yard than I've ever seen.


    Awesome Cannonball.  Glad you got out there and the Whites are in good shape.  Look forward to our visit the 1st weekend in March.  Keep us (me) updated.  You know I'm a fan of Lincoln.

    Alex

    Lake Hopatcong, NJ
  • riverc0ilriverc0il advanced
    Posts: 286
    The extra snow since Thursday must have helped. Thursday was off the hook but I would not have called it buried, there were a few things still lurking under the snow. One Mitt glade in particular, despite first tracks, required caution. OB was solid but still not full on charging yet. Perhaps Cannon proper has a bit more snow, I only made it over there once for a ride to the summit to get to Taft Race and tb.
  • ski_itski_it expert
    edited February 11 Posts: 1,926
    Okay you've made me feel like a total loser for not cherry picking more. :(
    I probably forgetting some instances (I hope so for my sake), but only a couple come to mind. 29" at MRG and one morning when I stopped at a pay phone off I93 to call in sick. I got interrupted by the operator who wanted more coins. The secretary at work, "Ski it where are you???" "Just a moment...Whispered "Mike, you got any more quarters?"

    Moral of this story: Hey you younguns call in sick on powder days.
    ISNE-I Skied New England | NESAP-the New England Ski Area Project | SOSA-Saving Our Ski Areas - Location SW of Boston MA
  • sugarloafsugarloaf expert
    edited February 11 Posts: 827
    Berkshire East was fantastic yesterday with tons of soft groomed snow and almost no ice. I'm going to Catamount on Tuesday for some groomed granular snow.

    Its pouring rain here in Enfield and I imagine the Connecticut and Massachusetts areas are going to take a hit with 1-2" of rain in the forecast.

    Ski Conditions Report: A detailed report describing the snow conditions on the mountain the day of your visit. Skiers should become familiar with the following snow surface descriptions: Ice: Packed Powder, Slush: Packed Powder, Frozen Granular: Packed Powder , Packed Powder - A thin covering of snow over bare earth.

  • joshua_segaljoshua_segal expert
    edited February 11 Posts: 1,998
    2010-1 was the paradigm of a great season: Good snow Xmas, MLK and pres. week. No January thaw to speak of.

    The wild temp swings of this winter with 0 degrees one day followed by rain and 40+ degrees the next day have IMO made for a very erratic 2017-8 season.

    But the actual ranking is still 3 to 4 months away  which I'll do by averaging the rankings that each of you send in.  

    It rained overnight and it is forecast to rain today which means that last Wednesday's superb snowstorm gave us great conditions for a mere 4 days.

    IMO, this season remains a bit below average - between 6th and 8th.
  • CannonballCannonball advanced
    edited February 11 Posts: 173

    It rained overnight and it is forecast to rain today which means that last Wednesday's superb snowstorm gave us great conditions for a mere 4 days.

    This is a great example of how variable our region is and how hard it is to generalize about "New England" as a whole. It didn't rain overnight in the Loon-Cannon area. And as of 11:15 this morning it hasn't rained today. Temp is around 32 with grey skies and no melting happening. I hear that southern VT wasn't so lucky. The season rankings may need to get some caveats for individual locations.

    EDIT:. I jinxed it. Started to drizzle in Lincoln just after I wrote this.
  • riverc0ilriverc0il advanced
    Posts: 286
    Was raining when I came through the notch this afternoon. Jay was in the 20s this morning with nice packed powder with occasional pockets of loose powder. NoVT might get by with just a little bit of mixing today which isn't bad. I'd be fine having the new snow get wet and freeze/lock up. The base had definitely not consolidated at Jay yet and it is nice to lock in the base so new snow is falling on top of something solid. Which is why I am not too upset about a little bit of rain. Hopefully we'll recover quickly.

    But that does speak to Cannonball's point about how it is tough to generalize in New England. I've disagreed with Joshua's wrap ups considerably in the past due to my skiing primarily in NoVT which often times can have a much different season than the rest of New England. But I don't press the point too hard, I know that I often have a much different season than folks that don't often get to Jay, Smuggs, etc.
  • sugarloafsugarloaf expert
    edited February 11 Posts: 827
    It's raining steadily here in N. Connecticut and its a cold rain. Per webcams, it's raining all the way up to Bolton Valley, but folks are still getting out.

    The extended outlook calls for snowfall possibly on Friday and into Saturday morning for Central and Southern New England. The GFS also has a GLC with rain for all of New England on 2/19 - 2/20.

    Ski Conditions Report: A detailed report describing the snow conditions on the mountain the day of your visit. Skiers should become familiar with the following snow surface descriptions: Ice: Packed Powder, Slush: Packed Powder, Frozen Granular: Packed Powder , Packed Powder - A thin covering of snow over bare earth.

  • Posts: 2,179
    To me it seems like a relatively average season overall so far in northern NewEngland, but below average in southern New England. We haven't had any significant natural snow here since the start of January.
    - Sam
  • joshua_segaljoshua_segal expert
    edited February 12 Posts: 1,998

    To me it seems like a relatively average season overall so far in northern NewEngland, but below average in southern New England. We haven't had any significant natural snow here since the start of January.

    Pretty much agree with Sam  (NES13). In my analysis,  I'm sensitive to the timing of weather concerning the economics of the industry.  What makes this season below average for my analysis is the loss of Xmas week due to the extreme cold snap and the loss of the MLK weekend due to the unprecedented 36-hour meltdown on Jan. 12/13.

    BTW: 2 days ago, Killington was 100% open.  Today they're down to 71 runs (a bit under 1/2).  If you chose to go last week, it was glorious; - but not so much if you went the week before or are going this week.
  • KayakerKayaker intermediate
    Posts: 23
    if we didn't have that cold weather around Christmas there would not have been as much snowmaking in southern New England and probably not as efficient snowmaking in northern New England.  Although it clearly hurt sales, without the very cold weather this year would have been a big disaster in southern New England.   
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