Pattern change coming.

ADKskierADKskier advanced
in NELSAP Forum Posts: 287
Looks like were gonna be in and up and down patter shift by late Tuesday. Which will result in warm fronts and and rain events for the next 11-14 days mixed in with average to above average temps.
~Rich~

Comments

  • 4aprice4aprice advanced
    Posts: 104
    Hope the rain will be minimal and fall at good times (midweek).  Ill take the warmer temperatures,  Took it last weekend but blowing off tomorrow for sure and maybe Sunday too.  

    JB says its a January Thaw till February.  Not a surprise to me and hopefully just a rest before a good Feb, March and April.

    Alex

    Lake Hopatcong, NJ
  • lotsoskiinglotsoskiing expert
    Posts: 934
    Another lost weekend for most NNE areas. Freaking cold....will hurt numbers, again
  • newpylongnewpylong expert
    edited January 5 Posts: 606
    I see some days in the long range outlook that will be in the 30s, some freezing rain, but cold nights. No thaw that I see, just seasonal temps finally. Should help rebound skier visits and allow for any further snowmaking required at night.
  • ADKskierADKskier advanced
    Posts: 287
    late January looking well above average. 40s for most late next week.
    ~Rich~
  • slathamslatham advanced
    Posts: 170
    "Thaw" is a relative term when it's below zero - as a high temp. Devil is in the details. Could be a ton of snow!
  • newpylongnewpylong expert
    edited January 6 Posts: 606
    ADKskier said:

    late January looking well above average. 40s for most late next week.

    Seacoast or Southern NE? The highest I have next week on the models we use to operate is 39 on Thursday in Central NH at 1200 feet. Higher elevations will be lucky to break freezing.

  • bmwskierbmwskier advanced
    Posts: 387
    I would be trying to go out this weekend but about 9 am the stove suddenly spit a couple of times and died. Out of propane-- about a month ahead of time. Three other people I know are in the same boat. Now, i have to wait for the big white truck full of heat to show up and fill the tank. Fortunately, we have the wood stove but it doesn't heat the water or the cook top. 
    "Making ski films is being irresponsible with other people's money, in a responsible sort of way..." 
    Greg Stump
  • ciscokidciscokid expert
    Posts: 1,889
    Burning A LOT of fuel oil
  • ADKskierADKskier advanced
    Posts: 287
    newpylong said:

    I see some days in the long range outlook that will be in the 30s, some freezing rain, but cold nights. No thaw that I see, just seasonal temps finally. Should help rebound skier visits and allow for any further snowmaking required at night.

    40's for "most". Mid to upper NH into maine looks like they wont get hit too hard. CNY, southern Vermont, NH to the coast will be 40-50's
    ~Rich~
  • ADKskierADKskier advanced
    edited January 6 Posts: 287
    Never mentioned a thaw, post was relative to a pattern change. 
    ~Rich~
  • 4aprice4aprice advanced
    Posts: 104
    ADKskier said:

    Never mentioned a thaw, post was relative to a pattern change. 

    I mentioned "thaw" and that's hopefully what it is.  It's something that has been documented over the years to happen just about every year and thus not a surprise.  In many cases (and hopefully this year too) the cold reloads and comes back for Feb.  

    We skiers/boarders are an emotional bunch and its always interesting to see the "winters over" reactions every time it happens. 9 out 10 times it comes back. Besides it looks like the west is finally going to get some love and that,s a good thing.  

    Joe Bastardi is bullish on the saying "what happens in December, winter will remember".  If so the best is yet to come.

    Alex

    Lake Hopatcong, NJ


  • newpylongnewpylong expert
    Posts: 606
    I just hope the warm up is brief and isn't a torch! That's all.
  • lotsoskiinglotsoskiing expert
    Posts: 934
    upper 30's predicted in CVT for Thur/Fri, then normal winter temps. Fingers crossed they are right and it does not morph into the blowtorch. They need a decent holiday weekend...
  • 4aprice4aprice advanced
    Posts: 104

    upper 30's predicted in CVT for Thur/Fri, then normal winter temps. Fingers crossed they are right and it does not morph into the blowtorch. They need a decent holiday weekend...

    Blow torch is a relative term.  Joe Bastardi explains it very well in his twitter feed.  We are going to bounce warm for a while but winter is not over.  It's going to snow here tomorrow, get warm, cool, then get warmer. It a product of living at or close to sea level. You don't get bell to bell winter here in the east.

    In skiing terms to me, that means it going to be a typical northeast winter.  For example, we could lose the trees/natural terrain for a while. I don't remember, many, if any seasons (50 Yr on skis) that didn't have warm periods.  We hope its not as bad as last season's melt down, but remember last years come back as well. (had my best days in the trees in April)  Snowmaking terrain should be fine.  I'm looking forward to the warmer temps as we blew off this weekend completely.  The only fear is rain wiping out days. 

    Alex

    Lake Hopatcong, NJ 
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