joshua_segal
Feb. 18, 2025
Powder days continue to mount up in the Northeast (I'm guessing in the small areas in Maine, too).
We're going on nearly 2-months without a thaw.
There has been copious snowmaking weather.
There has been no major melt-down yet this season and none in the long-term forecast thru the remainder of February.
All this IMO adds up to 2024-5 being the best season, certainly within the last decade -maybe even in the 21st century to date.
Your updated inputs?
Quietman
While I don't normally participate much in this thread, just wanted to add that at my home in Peterborough, NH - we have not had a day above 40 degrees since Dec 31st,(49 days), with only a handful of days above 30. Can't ever remember a stretch like this!
riverc0il
When was the last February vacation week with a major snowstorm, no rain/freeze before or during, and excellent overall conditions?
In my previous thoughts, I said this season would likely be the best of the past ten years even if my season ended immediately. Well, I am literally sticking by that, as I suffered a torn shoulder ligament this past weekend, and I'll probably be off skis for 1-2 months. Hopefully, I'll get some good spring skiing on the backside of the season.
With 14 powder days out of 15 days, this season was on pace to my best season ever in terms of powder days and overall conditions. Even without any additional powder days, this season enters my top three of all time. But that is a very Jay Peak specific viewpoint.
During the past month, I spent many chairlift rides thinking "wow, I really need to appreciate this season, as it may never happen again." It seems like a massive anomaly given climate change in general and the past half dozen or so years in specific.
All that said about my personal experience, this season still remains an average season for many parts of New England. Cannon is up to 132" YTD and has yet to be 100% open, I believe.
But that said, we've had some truly awful seasons during the past ten years to compare with. And we are going to go almost two full months without a single thaw/rain/freeze. The only thaw we had (late December) was pretty mild. So, almost three full months with only one minor set back. Even our best seasons usually have more variability.
yardsale
you always account for profitable vacation periods in your rankings - how are you measuring many resorts being shut down (almost) completely for the last 3 days ?
joshua_segal
yardsale;c-67527 wroteyou always account for profitable vacation periods in your rankings - how are you measuring many resorts being shut down (almost) completely for the last 3 days ?
Great question. No season in my recollection has been perfect. I haven’t seen season attendance numbers for the industry as a whole, but I know that CM is doing well. I suspect this is in large part due to the exceptional conditions for most of the last 2-months. We’ve even had lift lines on weekdays. That’s very unusual here.
As to major vacation periods:
- half Xmas week was good
- MLK weekend was excellent
- Feb. vacation week: Saturday was great; Su. M. Tu, and W. were/are too cold but F, Sa and Su are all looking good.
That being said, you might have a valid argument for #2 vs. #1. 2018-9 was a great season, but featured several major thaws. Certainly, Riverc0il and I are in agreement on this season. Perhaps a few other SJers could check in.
tedede
How many areas were not at 100% by the end of January? I'm struggling to see this year (albeit very good at this point) at the #1 spot.
joshua_segal
tedede;c-67532 wroteHow many areas were not at 100% by the end of January? I'm struggling to see this year (albeit very good at this point) at the #1 spot.
Not that many who have modern snow making equipment. CM was unusual because we ran out of water.
powderstud
riverc0il;c-67520 wroteI suffered a torn shoulder ligament this past weekend, and I'll probably be off skis for 1-2 months. Hopefully, I'll get some good spring skiing on the backside of the season.
I'm on the disabled list with a knee injury and not skiing this winter, so I sympathize. How did you tear your shoulder ligament Rivercoil? What happened?
slatham
There certainly are some exceptional stats on this winter across lack of thaws, major cold for snowmaking, some bumper powder days across the north country, solid holiday periods, and now at least decent snowfall across a wider area. What has been lacking in SoVT at least are the big powder days - 10”+. Sunday February 9th at 10-12” was the only true big powder day, with this past weekend very dense sierra cement, and the Thanksgiving storm falling on bare ground and closed areas. All other storms were 6” or less. Plenty of time left - last year had none until the end of March when we had 2 before seasons end.
Rivercoil, hope a quick and full recovery.
riverc0il
powderstud;c-67534 wroteHow did you tear your shoulder ligament Rivercoil? What happened?
The significant snowpack at Jay is causing an unusual issue in the off map trees: low ceiling. It has been an ongoing issue during my last three days this month.
While slotting in between a pair of samplings, I brought my pole up to block some brush at eye level and I didn't notice another sapling behind the branches.
I took a hit to my shoulder and it impacted a ligament. I didn't even hit the deck, just skied right through it. But I instantly knew it wasn't good.
All my ski injuries never happen on the hard stuff. This happened while dodging saplings to get onto a flat traverse that goes back to the ski area. It is easy to let your guard down during these situations, the run was basically over and it was traverse time. It could have been worse.
I am seeing an Ortho tomorrow, then I will know how long I'll need to let it heal. Based on what I've read, it is going to be 1-2 months.
riverc0il
I think there is a question that might help J.S. with summarizing the ratings for the season to date. For those that don't think this is a top season during the past 10 years, which seasons were better and what are the major differences?
We've had some awful seasons during the past ten years, some of the worst that I have experienced, and not just one or two. So, IMO, the bar for this season to be at least top three is very low.
I've downplayed my own experiences this season given JPR has done so much better than other areas (even those in NoVT). But I don't see how anyone could rate this season as less than top three of the past ten years. I can see 1, 2, or 3 being up for debate, for some parts of New England.
riverc0il
Jay is up to 385" for the season, absolutely nuts.
Mansfield Stake data shows 24-25 began March as the 4th most snow depth compared to other seasons on the same day (pretty sure it was third most a few days ago).
Strong parallel to 2018-2019, though this season has been more consistent smaller storms, fewer epic dumps, and more consistently cold (with one fewer melt down).
I'm on the DL for one more week.
marcski
For me in Central VT. this year has been great. Consistent cold temps with no major washouts and average to above average snowfall. We were getting snow almost every day in January into early February. Lots and lots of soft turns. Even with today and tonight's warm NCP, there should still be a good, strong snow pack for spring turns. And, I was out of commission for 2 weeks in one stretch and only a handful of days in the 3 weeks before that due to a knee injury and IMHO, still a great season compared to the last 10.
joshua_segal
Based on a thread titled, "This weekend" I think there may still be a valid argument for this season to be 2nd to 2018-9, but we'll know more as the month of March evolves.
Third Summary of 2024-5 (Thru 3/6/25):
2024-5: Slow early start, followed by a spectacular December. Killington opened to Rte. 4 before New Years Day. Most of ski country has had substantial early season snowfall, with a few powder days. The 1st half of Xmas Holiday week got big numbers of skier visits, although the 2nd half featured a nasty meltdown which refilled water supplies for some areas challenged by drought. January featured a very strong MLK weekend. Much of ski country received average amounts of snowfall (with VT Rt. 100 areas being way above average). Between Dec. 26 and Feb. 27 (9-weeks) there was no thaw north of the MA border which provided almost unlimited snow making weather. February featured powder days and lots of natural snow over most of New England. Industry-wide attendance figures may have been impacted by the unusually cold and windy weather that was the hallmark of February.
2018-9: Killington and Sunday River both opened on Oct. 19. Nov. snow and skiing was epic. Christmas week was above average, economically speaking. Jan. had a couple of thaws, but no major meltdown. There was a decent February, and 8 of the 9 days of Presidents Week featured great snow and great weather providing the industry a near record week. Most of VT, ME and northern NH had above average snowfall, but even the more southerly areas had great snowmaking weather to make up for any deficits. Early April featured some superb spring skiing, but mid-April included a severe meltdown where Killington dropped from 80 to 15 runs in a 2-day period. Despite that, the glacier on Killington's Superstar held up until June 2.
2016-7: Early season: Excellent, but only at Killington; Snowfall: Average to average plus; Economics: Excellent Christmas week both weather-wise and snow; MLK Weekend was excellent despite a generally poor January; February: Thru the 15th: epic; Presidents Day thru Mar. 10 - gruesome, remainder of the season: Awesome; Killington makes it until June 1.
2017-8: No October skiing - Nov. 8 opening; credible Thanksgiving for bigger areas; fantastic snow at Xmas break but record low temps made the week an economic flop with most ski areas. Killington, Wildcat and other venerable giants of the industry, all closed for one or more days due to extreme cold. Jan. 10 started a 36-hour epic meltdown which turned MLK weekend into an economic disaster. Just as surfaces were beginning to recover, another meltdown pretty much neutralized Presidents Week. Most major storm following MLK day were followed by either rain or an extend meltdown. March and April have been epic. Killington just missed Memorial Day, but more areas were open in May than in any recent year.
2014-5: Early season: - No October skiing, but great from mid-November to mid-December; Christmas: Rain - pretty well killed the business for the week; January including MLK Weekend: Bad - not much snow, not much business; February: Unbelievably great snow, but record cold weather kept the crowds away; Late season was great with Killington going until Memorial Day.
2022-3: No October skiing; Very limited November skiing; near record warmth in November impacting early-season snow making; already 3 or 4 freeze/melt cycles. A widespread 12"+ storm hits New England in mid-December providing huge trail expansion and some spectacular December skiing. Late December and early January was rife with rain, although the Xmas week itself was pretty good economically speaking for the industry. The remainder of January was reasonably good with a few powder days. MLK weekend provided 3-better-than-average days. Late Feb. thru March featured several large storms and generally excellent skiing. It should be noted, that if one lived in C, Eastern MA or RI, this season would be ranked lower. Very strong April skiing for the areas that remained open.
2020-1 Early season curtailed due to COVID-19. Mid-December was off the charts. After a Christmas disastrous warm rain, there has been consistent cold weather allowing for lots of good snow-making weather, but January has been very light on natural snow. Economically, the ski areas seem to be doing well with people desperate to get outdoors and the absence of a super-spreader event associated with skiing have all been plusses. Despite the lack of January snow, with no January thaw, conditions remained very good. Early Feb. has seen lots of snow events opening glades and non-snowmaking terrain. Except for the ice-storm of Feb. 16, the month included many days of superb skiing. The 2nd half of Feb. and all of March included no natural snow. Long COVID-related lift lines continue to be a problem at most areas.
2019-2020: Early season: - No October skiing, but great from mid-November to mid-December. Xmas week was so-so. Except for MLK weekend, January featured a lot of wild temperature swings and not much natural snow. Snow tended to be better north of the MA border. Feb. was mediocre, with little new snow, but Feb. vacation week was good. Mar. was disturbed by COVID-19 and unusually warm temps. The last New England ski area open were shut down at COB on Mar. 18.
2021-22: No lift-serviced Oct. skiing. Nov. 5 to Thanksgiving Week: Just Killington and their 2-trails. By mid-December: Limited skiing at a small percentage of ski areas. Xmas week featured 3-days of rain and fog. By mid-January, only a handful of New England areas are more than half-open. No January thaw. February and March featured some good days, but very little natural snow and lots of warm weather. March was record warm with many areas closing by mid-March. Good spring skiing in April, wasn't enough to redeem this season. Killington made it to June 4, but they were the last open lift-serviced skiing by 3-weeks.
2023-4: No October skiing (except for Ward Hill). Killington opened Nov. 6. Most of the other "big boys" were able to open for Thanksgiving. Northern areas did better with natural snow, but all of ski country had great snowmaking weather in early December, providing more open terrain than normal. The 2nd half of December featured unusual warmth and 2-major rainstorms. Christmas week crowds were minimal. January offered a mixed bag: several horrific rain events, but an excellent MLK weekend and a reasonably good ending to the month. While February remained warm with minimal snow-fall, most areas salvaged a strong Presidents Day Week. March brought more warm weather and early closings. The northern part of the state did well with big snow while the more southerly areas got rain.{Added Apr. 10} Two spectacular storms at the end of March created a window of outstanding skiing for a week or so at the end-of-March/beginning-of-April. There was little in the way of industry-wide crowds, although the areas that were open were undoubtedly profitable.
2015-6: After a flurry of mid-October skiing at Killington and Sunday River, things went dead for 3 weeks or so. December was one of the warmest in history with almost no snowmaking opportunities. Much of ski country did not even open until after Christmas. The absence of natural snow has minimized glade skiing. Mad River was open a grand total of 45 days and 1/3 of those were Practice Slope only. Killington ran until May 29 despite receiving only 1/3 of its normal snow total. Most areas closed 2 to 3 weeks earlier than usual. A few old timers remember seasons this bad but not in the last 10 years.
As always, comments invited.
abubob
Without a single nor’easter I cannot remember a better year myself. Usually by this time we’ve had at least two storms that form a low off the Jersey shore and form a rotation that pulls the cold air into the moist air. They’ve all been the of clipper variety. I think the last of the bigger storms did combine a northern clipper to a southern flow but didn’t form a rotation until it was well past NH.
So I’ve lost count of all the storms that dropped 3 or 4 inches. I’ve run my snowblower so much that I ran out of gas for it. That has never happened in the last 13 years! Now, certainly we’ve had bigger snow years. I can remember having to shovel off my roof 3 times in that same period and so far this year I haven’t had a need. But It’s all these little storms that have had that have had a different sort of impact.
And at Ragged, finally, I’ve not seen the far skiers right trails ever open so early and with grooming top to bottom. I’m talking about Easy Winder, Big Rock, Mikey’s Run, and Cabin Fever. While the grooming was management’s choice the early opening with as much coverage was not.
So, while not a record amount of snow, the timing couldn’t be much better.
slatham
It’s been a good season, and maybe it is the best over the past 10 years, but given snowfall hasn’t hit the average for many key NE cities like Burlington, Albany, Concord, Worcester, etc. it’s not, overall, that amazing.
joshua_segal
slatham;c-67762 wrote...
It’s been a good season, and maybe it is the best over the past 10 years, but given snowfall hasn’t hit the average for many key NE cities like Burlington, Albany, Concord, Worcester, etc. it’s not, overall, that amazing.
As Jay Peak goes thru the 400" of snow mark, I must point out that I'd prefer to see a list of ski areas rather than major metropolitan areas!
Also, due to the 9-week period with no thaw in most of ski country, the snow that did come lasted much longer than usual.
Lastly, in the modern era, quantity of snowmaking weather (IMO) must also factor into the "quantity of snow" equation.
riverc0il
joshua_segal;c-67773 wroteAs Jay Peak goes thru the 400" of snow mark, I must point out that I'd prefer to see a list of ski areas rather than major metropolitan areas!
Agreed that a list of snow in metro areas is completely irrelevant for ski country! Even BTV is not a good point of comparison: Compare BTV with the Mansfield Stake... BTV is below average but the stake is top five of all time for early March snow depth.
Many ski areas (not in NoVT) are a major snow storm or two away from hitting their seasonal averages. It would be highly unusual to not get any big storms for the rest of the season.
That said, it has not been a great start to March with a rain/freeze event and warmer temps following the freeze. Unless things swing back the other way soon, I can see the argument for 2018-2019 being the superior season overall.
Reports from this weekend are saying "firm and fast'". That is only the second time since the start of the season that things have been "firm and fast" (the start of the season is always "firm and fast", so I am excluding opening week conditions).
lotsoskiing
50's Tuesday, then teens Tuesday night in CVT. No rain but will make things soft on Tuesday, hard as a rock on Wednesday.
slatham
To be clear I am focused just on snowfall. I admitted this might be the best year, overall, of the past 10 (although that view may not hold over the next couple of weeks).
And I agree the metro NWS stations are not ideal, but they have professionally measured snowfall AND historical average. Even if you trust a ski areas YTD snowfall (most I do not) few have a reliable historical number (and I haven’t found one with a running YTD average).
Also note these NWS measurements are YTD vs YTD average, not YTD vs full season average.
Everyone seems so focused on Jay, but Jay is an outlier every year and far far from representative. Actually, I would argue that all of Northern VT - and Jay in particular- are an anomaly this winter as far as snowfall (not cold, snowmaking or skier visits). There have been several significant northern upslope events that literally hit only Sugarbush to Jay. Hence BTV below average.
And let’s not forget the rest of the northeast. I doubt Jiminy, Berkshire East or the Catskills (save for maybe Plattekill) had a good snow year with Albany below normal. Nor Sunapee, Crotched and Ragged when Concord is at only 65% of normal. Or Camden Snowbowl and Pleasant with Gray Maine at 72%. Not to mention all the areas further south, with the NYC, Hartford, Worcester corridor 50% or less.
Focused on *snowfall* not a great year for the region. Let’s hope this is not the new norm for what is thought to be a good year.
