Cannon's Tram to Close Before Replacement Ready

powderstud

I will exercise restraint in future posts about the political angle of what's happening at Cannon. I apologize to those who took exception. Except as Lotsoskiing and Rivercoil have noted, the politics of the matter are inseparable from the rest of the story. Elections have consequences. Had Kamala Harris been elected President, this would not be happening.

And as one other data point which I failed to mention in my post above, assuming the illegal tariffs somehow stick around (and I won't specify the now thoroughly-corrupted branch of government that could make that happen), the cost of a Cannon tram replacement is no longer $33MM. It is likely above $40MM. Consider the tariffs on imported steel and aluminum range from 25% - 50%, plus other components from the E.U. are at least 15%, and I don't know exactly where that shakes out for an updated replacement cost assuming other costs have not changed (and they most certainly have), but the bottom line is we're likely looking at a replacement cost in the ballpark of $42-$45MM. That ain't happening.

Chuckstah

I may be biased and full of wishful thinking as I'm a short timer before free skiing at Cannon, but I think the state will get it done, although it will definitely take longer than two years. The tram will more than pay for itself over a 40 year lifespan, regardless of who is in office. And even in the 40 million ballpark. Being a major tourist attraction, it brings in countless tourists, filling hotel rooms, restaurants, stores , and other attractions in the area. These are all taxed, and need to be included in revenue generated by the tram.

newpylong

It absolutely will be replaced.

riverc0il

lotsoskiing;c-70262 wroteI agree about making an attempt to keep politics out of SJ. But if tariffs are why costs have skyrocketed and are pushing the project beyond what the state will pay, then we should not be restricted from saying so.

I think saying that the price on steel (and/or other imported components) has increased due to tariffs is factual and not political. Sharing personal feelings (for or against) about the tariffs would be political.

Chuckstah

riverc0il;c-70267 wrote
lotsoskiing;c-70262 wroteI agree about making an attempt to keep politics out of SJ. But if tariffs are why costs have skyrocketed and are pushing the project beyond what the state will pay, then we should not be restricted from saying so.
I think saying that the price on steel (and/or other imported components) has increased due to tariffs is factual and not political. Sharing personal feelings (for or against) about the tariffs would be political.

Very interesting, to me anyway, is that steel is cheaper than it's been in quite some time, about equal to the price in 2017. Aluminum is around the 2021 price. I was surprised when I just researched this.

lotsoskiing

Chuckstah;c-70268 wrote
riverc0il;c-70267 wrote
lotsoskiing;c-70262 wroteI agree about making an attempt to keep politics out of SJ. But if tariffs are why costs have skyrocketed and are pushing the project beyond what the state will pay, then we should not be restricted from saying so.
I think saying that the price on steel (and/or other imported components) has increased due to tariffs is factual and not political. Sharing personal feelings (for or against) about the tariffs would be political.
Very interesting, to me anyway, is that steel is cheaper than it's been in quite some time, about equal to the price in 2017. Aluminum is around the 2021 price. I was surprised when I just researched this.

It will go up. Domestic producers have already started raising prices. Like everything else, the tariff effects will be felt around the end of the year when companies decide they can't keep eating higher import costs.

powderstud

Lotsoskiing, the WSJ and Bloomberg have widely reported that many businesses are putting investment decisions on hold due to the wild gyrations emanating from the administration that change from day to day (or even more frequently). Businesses require certainty to make long-term investment decisions that involve large sums, and right now we are living through a self-inflicted period of (irrational) uncertainty that makes planning difficult to impossible.

I can tell you from personal experience that a company I'm working with is trying to decide what to do about a manufacturing matter, and they're uncertain whether they will manufacture in Asia, Europe, or (unlikely) in the U.S. They've delayed this decision for the time being, yet it can not be put off indefinitely. They're trying to figure out what the long-run even looks like, while dealing with the current realities shaped by an administration that subjectively changes its position from moment to moment, often by tweet.

In times of uncertainty, the best decision can sometimes be to do nothing until things become a little clearer. And doing nothing has terrible implications for the economy, for investment, and for demand for inputs of manufacturing. That's where we are.

So how does this affect the ski industry? I'm glad you asked! :smile: In lots of ways. But I'm going to only focus on one: electricity costs. It's been widely reported that electricity costs are increasing far beyond inflation and accelerating. Every homeowner with a monthly electric bill sees this first-hand. As has been widely reported, this is due to the extreme power demands of AI data centers. Because there's little to no electrical generating capacity nationwide, prices are rising until more supply becomes available. And the sources of electricity which had been able to relatively quickly come online--renewable energies--are being intentionally attacked and choked off by Trump for irrational, ideological, non-economic reasons. So while electricity demand is shooting through the roof, the response of the administration is to try and choke off supply of the sources of energy that can in a near-time way meet that demand (which fossil fuels can't - it takes such a long time to get new fossil fuel energy production up and running, which is the opposite for renewable energy). This is going to get 10x worse.

My electric bills have increased approximately 15% over the last year. And we haven't even gotten started on the electric bill increases that are baked in and coming. So if we're potentially looking at DRAMATIC increases in electric prices over the next few years (easily 50% in my opinion), what do you think this means for the operation of ski lifts? Snowmaking? Lift ticket prices? Ski area profitability?

Don't look now, but the sheisse is snowballing downhill, headed to all of us standing at the bottom of the mountain.

lotsoskiing

Thanks for the info. Crazy times just get crazier...

One question: The carrot Cannon is hanging out there is the results of inspecting towers, etc. When is that supposed to happen? Sorry if it's in the press releases and i just didn;t dig, and I am sure whatever date they assert it will in fact be later.

powderstud

lotsoskiing;c-70271 wroteOne question: The carrot Cannon is hanging out there is the results of inspecting towers, etc. When is that supposed to happen? Sorry if it's in the press releases and i just didn;t dig, and I am sure whatever date they assert it will in fact be later.

Bingo, lotsoskiing. I believe you've just hit the nail on the head as to why what's coming out of Cannon can be appropriately described as "performance art" that means nothing.

Cannon rejected the one bid received for the tram replacement in 2023. However, before that happened they were saying (as early as 2022 but perhaps even earlier than that) they believed the State of NH could continue using the existing towers, footings, and other infrastructure and therefore avoid those replacement costs. The bid made it clear that Leitner believed the opposite.

If Cannon genuinely believed this and that Leitner was wrong, do you think they would have done the necessary testing in 2023 to prove their point? If I were Cannon's GM and I believed that Leitner was wrong, that testing would have been done immediately. Yet it wasn't done in 2023. Oops. How about in 2024? Oops. How about in 2025? Oops...

Cannon STILL hasn't done that testing while continuing to assert (in the face of logic and common sense) that 45+ year old metal and concrete is still perfectly fine to use for another 40 years or so with even more of a burden to handle (i.e. larger tram equals more weight and greater force). The burden of proof is on Cannon to prove its position (which seems illogical), yet they have been unwilling to do the work necessary while continuing to make such claims.

As the saying goes, do the math. This is all theater and no one wants to say the truth of what's going on.

obienick

I wouldn’t say expressing personal feelings towards/against tariffs is political: that is an economic argument. However expressing feelings towards/against who is imposing tariffs is.

Peter

While tariffs are most certainly impacting the price of ski lifts in general, it's premature to say they have any impact on Cannon's situation. Cannon hasn't even put the project out to bid. They don't even know what the scope of the project is.

powderstud

Peter;c-70277 wroteWhile tariffs are most certainly impacting the price of ski lifts in general, it's premature to say they have any impact on Cannon's situation. Cannon hasn't even put the project out to bid. They don't even know what the scope of the project is.

Peter, can you tell us WHERE 95+% of the world's ski lifts are manufactured and geographically come from?

Or another way to get at the same question: Are 95%+ of the world's ski lifts manufactured in the United States?

If the tramway is not being manufactured in the U.S., it will be subject to a minimum illegal tariff of 15% but likely more than that.

Fact: 100% of the world's aerial tramways are manufactured outside the United States.

There is a 100% chance that tariffs will INCREASE the cost of building a new tram on Cannon by at least 15% but likely more. And most of the increased cost will be due to the illegal tariffs. (Edited by moderator.)

riverc0il

lotsoskiing;c-70269 wroteVery interesting, to me anyway, is that steel is cheaper than it's been in quite some time, about equal to the price in 2017. Aluminum is around the 2021 price. I was surprised when I just researched this.

I am not too familiar with how steel is priced as a final product by lift manufacturers. That may differ from the market value tracked on a market. If manufacturers are sending steel to the US from Europe, the market price of steel would not include tariffs, which are paid by the importer, over and above the price of the actual product.

riverc0il

powderstud;c-70280 wroteThere is a 100% chance that tariffs will INCREASE the cost of building a new tram on Cannon by at least 15% but likely more.

The above wording change would help this thread continue and not be shut down. While I am not a fan of the tariffs, I am also not a fan of having threads deviate into politics and get closed. (Moderator made the suggested edit.)

joshua_segal

In my capacity as moderator, I received a complaint about powderstud's posting for being "overtly political". One could argue the points that tariffs will increase prices of lifts. One could argue that the governor's owning a ski area, might have political impact on the ski industry. Based on those points the posting may be interpreted as both political and relevant to the topic.

I'm tempted to delete the posting, but I would prefer if powderstud did some editing to focus the posting on the impact on skiing rather than the politics.

Peter

powderstud;c-70280 wrote
Peter;c-70277 wroteWhile tariffs are most certainly impacting the price of ski lifts in general, it's premature to say they have any impact on Cannon's situation. Cannon hasn't even put the project out to bid. They don't even know what the scope of the project is.
Peter, can you tell us WHERE 95+% of the world's ski lifts are manufactured and geographically come from?

Or another way to get at the same question: Are 95%+ of the world's ski lifts manufactured in the United States?

If the tramway is not being manufactured in the U.S., it will be subject to a minimum illegal tariff of 15% but likely more than that.

Fact: 100% of the world's aerial tramways are manufactured outside the United States.

There is a 100% chance that the tariffs will INCREASE the cost of building a new tram on Cannon by at least 15% but likely more. And most of the increased cost will be due to the illegal tariffs.

The answer to where ski lifts come from is all over. Leitner-Poma and Skytrac manufacture mostly in Colorado and Utah. Many carriers, gearboxes and haul ropes come from Europe. Gondola and tram cabins are produced in either France or Switzerland depending on the manufacturer. Doppelmayr detachables are produced in Canada (mostly) while their fixed grips are from Salt Lake (mostly). When I say mostly, I'm talking about most of a lift, not most lifts. Just like with cars, the supply chain is complex with different suppliers specializing in different components. More than half the cost of a lift is not actually steel but things like site prep, engineering, concrete, operator houses, communications lines and generators - plus profit margin. None of that is subject to tariffs. I've been told Doppelmayr's Canadian products have been entering the US tariff free this summer thanks to USMCA.

Aerial trams are more complicated than chairlifts or gondolas. There's a lot of structural steel that could be producted to spec in a variety of different factories. For the Jackson Hole tram, it was a mix of Swiss, US and Czech structural steel. Core tram systems will always come from Europe, particularly if Garaventa wins the contract. Leitner-Poma would likely do more in the US. The Roosevelt Island Tram was producted mostly in Colorado.

I'm no fan of tariffs but they are just a small piece of this boondoggle. This project was underfunded long before Trump returned to office.

Chuckstah

lotsoskiing;c-70269 wrote
Chuckstah;c-70268 wrote
riverc0il;c-70267 wrote
lotsoskiing;c-70262 wroteI agree about making an attempt to keep politics out of SJ. But if tariffs are why costs have skyrocketed and are pushing the project beyond what the state will pay, then we should not be restricted from saying so.
I think saying that the price on steel (and/or other imported components) has increased due to tariffs is factual and not political. Sharing personal feelings (for or against) about the tariffs would be political.
Very interesting, to me anyway, is that steel is cheaper than it's been in quite some time, about equal to the price in 2017. Aluminum is around the 2021 price. I was surprised when I just researched this.
It will go up. Domestic producers have already started raising prices. Like everything else, the tariff effects will be felt around the end of the year when companies decide they can't keep eating higher import costs.

It's a commodity. It will go up, and it will go down, nature of the market. Not much steel is imported, only around 20 percent, and the vast majority is from recycling. But tariffs will have a bit of impact on steel price when there's high demand. Hopefully domestic production and recycling will increase, but that's not certain. Aluminum is different, as about half is imported, but I'm not sure how much is used for a tram?

timberleaf

I just don't see where the money is going to come from no matter what the cost. This just came out today:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/2025/09/23/interstate-93-89-expansion-delay/

Talking about flat revenue streams etc... The 93 89 expansion has been planned for years and they're halting work on it due to lack of funds... Meanwhile Cannon doesn't even have a plan. With the recent elimination of the Dividends and Interest tax and the loss of revenue from the Tram itself, getting funding for anything new has to be nearly impossible. Everybody is competing for a slice of a smaller and smaller pie these days.

Chuckstah

Structural analysis to begin.

https://www.cannonmt.com/articles/structural-analysis-begins-on-cannon-aerial-tramway

tedede

joshua_segal;c-70283 wroteIn my capacity as moderator, I received a complaint about powderstud's posting for being "overtly political".

Wasn't me, I'm enjoying the dialog.

Dems sat in the governors office for 12 years (05-16) source. Four of those years they controlled the Congress too. During that time the Tram aged from its mid 20's to its mid 30s. Did the Dems assume the lift would last forever?

Theres also all of the meeting notes from the Cannon Mtn Advisory Commission

If I was an enterprising researcher, I might upload all of these minutes to a LLM and get an idea what transpired.

There's a process for asking for tariff exemptions for infrastructure.

I'd be more concerned about their chairlifts, most are pretty long in the tooth.

It'll get rebuilt at some point, at the speed of government.

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