Rating the 2023-4 Season Versus the Last 10 Years
Rating the 2023-4 Season Versus the Last 10 Years
If you want to look back at last season, here is the URL for 2022-3:
http://snowjournal.com/discussion/comment/61683#Comment_61683
Final Summary of 2022-3:
2012-3: While there was little snow in December and January, February and March were epic. The snow that did happen in December was right before Christmas week which was timely from an economic point-of-view. Same was true of the January snow with respect to MLK weekend. Although there was minimal early snowfall, there was a lot of good snowmaking weather in December. There were two nasty January thaws, but great mid-winter skiing right into April. Ski areas closing with 100% full-width open trails.
2018-9: Killington and Sunday River both opened on Oct. 19. Nov. snow and skiing was epic. Christmas week was above average, economically speaking. Jan. had a couple of thaws, but no major meltdown. There was a decent February, and 8 of the 9 days of Presidents Week featured great snow and great weather providing the industry a near record week. Most of VT, ME and northern NH had above average snowfall, but even the more southerly areas had great snowmaking weather to make up for any deficits. Early April featured some superb spring skiing, but mid-April included a severe meltdown where Killington dropped from 80 to 15 runs in a 2-day period. Despite that, the glacier on Killington's Superstar held up until June 2.
2013-4: The fact is, the season had a promising start, but two major meltdowns really put a damper on the season. Mad River Glen was all but shut down for a couple of weeks in January. January was unusually cold. We had a great Feb. vacation week, ending in a thaw that pretty much "firmed up" the surfaces followed by a major cold snap. The skiing in March was epic from Killington north and pretty good elsewhere. Superb skiing continued in April. Those in the Mid-Atlantic states might rate this season as #1.
2016-7: Early season: Excellent, but only at Killington; Snowfall: Average to average plus; Economics: Excellent Christmas week both weather-wise and snow; MLK Weekend was excellent despite a generally poor January; February: Thru the 15th: epic; Presidents Day thru Mar. 10 - gruesome, remainder of the season: Awesome; Killington makes it until June 1.
2017-8: No October skiing - Nov. 8 opening; credible Thanksgiving for bigger areas; fantastic snow at Xmas break but record low temps made the week an economic flop with most ski areas. Killington, Wildcat and other venerable giants of the industry, all closed for one or more days due to extreme cold. Jan. 10 started a 36-hour epic meltdown which turned MLK weekend into an economic disaster. Just as surfaces were beginning to recover, another meltdown pretty much neutralized Presidents Week. Most major storm following MLK day were followed by either rain or an extend meltdown. March and April have been epic. Killington just missed Memorial Day, but more areas were open in May than in any recent year.
2014-5: Early season: - No October skiing, but great from mid-November to mid-December; Christmas: Rain - pretty well killed the business for the week; January including MLK Weekend: Bad - not much snow, not much business; February: Unbelievably great snow, but record cold weather kept the crowds away; Late season was great with Killington going until Memorial Day.
2022-3: No October skiing; Very limited November skiing; near record warmth in November impacting early-season snow making; already 3 or 4 freeze/melt cycles. A widespread 12"+ storm hits New England in mid-December providing huge trail expansion and some spectacular December skiing. Late December and early January was rife with rain, although the Xmas week itself was pretty good economically speaking for the industry. The remainder of January was reasonably good with a few powder days. MLK weekend provided 3-better-than-average days. Late Feb. thru March featured several large storms and generally excellent skiing. It should be noted, that if one lived in C, Eastern MA or RI, this season would be ranked lower. Very strong April skiing for the areas that remained open.
2020-1 Early season curtailed due to COVID-19. Mid-December was off the charts. After a Christmas disastrous warm rain, there has been consistent cold weather allowing for lots of good snow-making weather, but January has been very light on natural snow. Economically, the ski areas seem to be doing well with people desperate to get outdoors and the absence of a super-spreader event associated with skiing have all been plusses. Despite the lack of January snow, with no January thaw, conditions remained very good. Early Feb. has seen lots of snow events opening glades and non-snowmaking terrain. Except for the ice-storm of Feb. 16, the month included many days of superb skiing. The 2nd half of Feb. and all of March included no natural snow. Long COVID-related lift lines continue to be a problem at most areas.
2019-2020: Early season: - No October skiing, but great from mid-November to mid-December. Xmas week was so-so. Except for MLK weekend, January featured a lot of wild temperature swings and not much natural snow. Snow tended to be better north of the MA border. Feb. was mediocre, with little new snow, but Feb. vacation week was good. Mar. was disturbed by COVID-19 and unusually warm temps. The last New England ski area open were shut down at COB on Mar. 18.
2021-22: No lift-serviced Oct. skiing. Nov. 5 to Thanksgiving Week: Just Killington and their 2-trails. By mid-December: Limited skiing at a small percentage of ski areas. Xmas week featured 3-days of rain and fog. By mid-January, only a handful of New England areas are more than half-open. No January thaw. February and March featured some good days, but very little natural snow and lots of warm weather. March was record warm with many areas closing by mid-March. Good spring skiing in April, wasn't enough to redeem this season. Killington made it to June 4, but they were the last open lift-serviced skiing by 3-weeks.
2015-6: After a flurry of mid-October skiing at Killington and Sunday River, things went dead for 3 weeks or so. December was one of the warmest in history with almost no snowmaking opportunities. Much of ski country did not even open until after Christmas. The absence of natural snow has minimized glade skiing. Mad River was open a grand total of 45 days and 1/3 of those were Practice Slope only. Killington ran until May 29 despite receiving only 1/3 of its normal snow total. Most areas closed 2 to 3 weeks earlier than usual. A few old timers remember seasons this bad but not in the last 10 years.
We'll be dropping #1, the 2012-13 season.
An initial start for the early season:
On the negative, no October skiing.
A number of the big boys were open in November offering limited but OK skiing.
Early December provided extensive snowmaking weather.
While much of ski country was getting rain, the spine of VT got snow and offered excellent early season skiing, even on natural snow advanced runs.
Overall, I would rate the early season as somewhere between C+ and B-. on the above list, I would put it in the middle - 5th or 6th.
Your inputs?
If you want to look back at last season, here is the URL for 2022-3:
http://snowjournal.com/discussion/comment/61683#Comment_61683
Final Summary of 2022-3:
2012-3: While there was little snow in December and January, February and March were epic. The snow that did happen in December was right before Christmas week which was timely from an economic point-of-view. Same was true of the January snow with respect to MLK weekend. Although there was minimal early snowfall, there was a lot of good snowmaking weather in December. There were two nasty January thaws, but great mid-winter skiing right into April. Ski areas closing with 100% full-width open trails.
2018-9: Killington and Sunday River both opened on Oct. 19. Nov. snow and skiing was epic. Christmas week was above average, economically speaking. Jan. had a couple of thaws, but no major meltdown. There was a decent February, and 8 of the 9 days of Presidents Week featured great snow and great weather providing the industry a near record week. Most of VT, ME and northern NH had above average snowfall, but even the more southerly areas had great snowmaking weather to make up for any deficits. Early April featured some superb spring skiing, but mid-April included a severe meltdown where Killington dropped from 80 to 15 runs in a 2-day period. Despite that, the glacier on Killington's Superstar held up until June 2.
2013-4: The fact is, the season had a promising start, but two major meltdowns really put a damper on the season. Mad River Glen was all but shut down for a couple of weeks in January. January was unusually cold. We had a great Feb. vacation week, ending in a thaw that pretty much "firmed up" the surfaces followed by a major cold snap. The skiing in March was epic from Killington north and pretty good elsewhere. Superb skiing continued in April. Those in the Mid-Atlantic states might rate this season as #1.
2016-7: Early season: Excellent, but only at Killington; Snowfall: Average to average plus; Economics: Excellent Christmas week both weather-wise and snow; MLK Weekend was excellent despite a generally poor January; February: Thru the 15th: epic; Presidents Day thru Mar. 10 - gruesome, remainder of the season: Awesome; Killington makes it until June 1.
2017-8: No October skiing - Nov. 8 opening; credible Thanksgiving for bigger areas; fantastic snow at Xmas break but record low temps made the week an economic flop with most ski areas. Killington, Wildcat and other venerable giants of the industry, all closed for one or more days due to extreme cold. Jan. 10 started a 36-hour epic meltdown which turned MLK weekend into an economic disaster. Just as surfaces were beginning to recover, another meltdown pretty much neutralized Presidents Week. Most major storm following MLK day were followed by either rain or an extend meltdown. March and April have been epic. Killington just missed Memorial Day, but more areas were open in May than in any recent year.
2014-5: Early season: - No October skiing, but great from mid-November to mid-December; Christmas: Rain - pretty well killed the business for the week; January including MLK Weekend: Bad - not much snow, not much business; February: Unbelievably great snow, but record cold weather kept the crowds away; Late season was great with Killington going until Memorial Day.
2022-3: No October skiing; Very limited November skiing; near record warmth in November impacting early-season snow making; already 3 or 4 freeze/melt cycles. A widespread 12"+ storm hits New England in mid-December providing huge trail expansion and some spectacular December skiing. Late December and early January was rife with rain, although the Xmas week itself was pretty good economically speaking for the industry. The remainder of January was reasonably good with a few powder days. MLK weekend provided 3-better-than-average days. Late Feb. thru March featured several large storms and generally excellent skiing. It should be noted, that if one lived in C, Eastern MA or RI, this season would be ranked lower. Very strong April skiing for the areas that remained open.
2020-1 Early season curtailed due to COVID-19. Mid-December was off the charts. After a Christmas disastrous warm rain, there has been consistent cold weather allowing for lots of good snow-making weather, but January has been very light on natural snow. Economically, the ski areas seem to be doing well with people desperate to get outdoors and the absence of a super-spreader event associated with skiing have all been plusses. Despite the lack of January snow, with no January thaw, conditions remained very good. Early Feb. has seen lots of snow events opening glades and non-snowmaking terrain. Except for the ice-storm of Feb. 16, the month included many days of superb skiing. The 2nd half of Feb. and all of March included no natural snow. Long COVID-related lift lines continue to be a problem at most areas.
2019-2020: Early season: - No October skiing, but great from mid-November to mid-December. Xmas week was so-so. Except for MLK weekend, January featured a lot of wild temperature swings and not much natural snow. Snow tended to be better north of the MA border. Feb. was mediocre, with little new snow, but Feb. vacation week was good. Mar. was disturbed by COVID-19 and unusually warm temps. The last New England ski area open were shut down at COB on Mar. 18.
2021-22: No lift-serviced Oct. skiing. Nov. 5 to Thanksgiving Week: Just Killington and their 2-trails. By mid-December: Limited skiing at a small percentage of ski areas. Xmas week featured 3-days of rain and fog. By mid-January, only a handful of New England areas are more than half-open. No January thaw. February and March featured some good days, but very little natural snow and lots of warm weather. March was record warm with many areas closing by mid-March. Good spring skiing in April, wasn't enough to redeem this season. Killington made it to June 4, but they were the last open lift-serviced skiing by 3-weeks.
2015-6: After a flurry of mid-October skiing at Killington and Sunday River, things went dead for 3 weeks or so. December was one of the warmest in history with almost no snowmaking opportunities. Much of ski country did not even open until after Christmas. The absence of natural snow has minimized glade skiing. Mad River was open a grand total of 45 days and 1/3 of those were Practice Slope only. Killington ran until May 29 despite receiving only 1/3 of its normal snow total. Most areas closed 2 to 3 weeks earlier than usual. A few old timers remember seasons this bad but not in the last 10 years.
We'll be dropping #1, the 2012-13 season.
An initial start for the early season:
On the negative, no October skiing.
A number of the big boys were open in November offering limited but OK skiing.
Early December provided extensive snowmaking weather.
While much of ski country was getting rain, the spine of VT got snow and offered excellent early season skiing, even on natural snow advanced runs.
Overall, I would rate the early season as somewhere between C+ and B-. on the above list, I would put it in the middle - 5th or 6th.
Your inputs?
Comments
I feel obliged to point out that there was October skiing (at Ward), it was just very minimal.
With Killington opening in October in less than half of the 10 most recent seasons, chairlift-served October skiing nowadays should be viewed as a treat rather than a standard or expectation IMHO - i.e. lack of October skiing as a neutral factor rather than a negative one.
This seems like it will be a season of the haves and have nots. Northern areas did quite well so far, southern areas not so much.
Jay has been 100% skiable on map for over a week with most off map being skiable (if not completely filled in yet). Jay is not 100% only due to not having lifts ready to go and snowmaking completed (all expert on map trails/glades are open).
Put into context, Jay currently has received 102" already... more than 50% of the average annual snowfall of the best performing NH areas. Stowe, Smuggs, and Bolton (to a lesser extent, due to lower elevation) are probably similar, I would imagine.
I am a happy camper with my Jay pass. But I would not be thrilled if my local mountain was in southern or central New England. So, probably more of a mixed bag overall, despite strong performances in NoVT and the Whites of Maine.
thesnowway.com
And it is only Dec. 11. I can't remember the last time trails counts were this high, this early, and with consistent snowmaking temps. Many places will go round the closk now through Thursday or so.
I agree. Lost Valley and Quarry Road both have more trails open with snowmaking than I've ever seen this time of year.
Pic from 11/23
First Summary of 2023-4:
2018-9: Killington and Sunday River both opened on Oct. 19. Nov. snow and skiing was epic. Christmas week was above average, economically speaking. Jan. had a couple of thaws, but no major meltdown. There was a decent February, and 8 of the 9 days of Presidents Week featured great snow and great weather providing the industry a near record week. Most of VT, ME and northern NH had above average snowfall, but even the more southerly areas had great snowmaking weather to make up for any deficits. Early April featured some superb spring skiing, but mid-April included a severe meltdown where Killington dropped from 80 to 15 runs in a 2-day period. Despite that, the glacier on Killington's Superstar held up until June 2.
2023-4: No October skiing (except for Ward Hill). Killington opened Nov. 6. Most of the other "big boys" were able to open for Thanksgiving. Northern areas did better with natural snow, but all of ski country had great snowmaking weather in early December, providing more open terrain than normal.
2013-4: The fact is, the season had a promising start, but two major meltdowns really put a damper on the season. Mad River Glen was all but shut down for a couple of weeks in January. January was unusually cold. We had a great Feb. vacation week, ending in a thaw that pretty much "firmed up" the surfaces followed by a major cold snap. The skiing in March was epic from Killington north and pretty good elsewhere. Superb skiing continued in April. Those in the Mid-Atlantic states might rate this season as #1.
2016-7: Early season: Excellent, but only at Killington; Snowfall: Average to average plus; Economics: Excellent Christmas week both weather-wise and snow; MLK Weekend was excellent despite a generally poor January; February: Thru the 15th: epic; Presidents Day thru Mar. 10 - gruesome, remainder of the season: Awesome; Killington makes it until June 1.
2017-8: No October skiing - Nov. 8 opening; credible Thanksgiving for bigger areas; fantastic snow at Xmas break but record low temps made the week an economic flop with most ski areas. Killington, Wildcat and other venerable giants of the industry, all closed for one or more days due to extreme cold. Jan. 10 started a 36-hour epic meltdown which turned MLK weekend into an economic disaster. Just as surfaces were beginning to recover, another meltdown pretty much neutralized Presidents Week. Most major storm following MLK day were followed by either rain or an extend meltdown. March and April have been epic. Killington just missed Memorial Day, but more areas were open in May than in any recent year.
2014-5: Early season: - No October skiing, but great from mid-November to mid-December; Christmas: Rain - pretty well killed the business for the week; January including MLK Weekend: Bad - not much snow, not much business; February: Unbelievably great snow, but record cold weather kept the crowds away; Late season was great with Killington going until Memorial Day.
2022-3: No October skiing; Very limited November skiing; near record warmth in November impacting early-season snow making; already 3 or 4 freeze/melt cycles. A widespread 12"+ storm hits New England in mid-December providing huge trail expansion and some spectacular December skiing. Late December and early January was rife with rain, although the Xmas week itself was pretty good economically speaking for the industry. The remainder of January was reasonably good with a few powder days. MLK weekend provided 3-better-than-average days. Late Feb. thru March featured several large storms and generally excellent skiing. It should be noted, that if one lived in C, Eastern MA or RI, this season would be ranked lower. Very strong April skiing for the areas that remained open.
2020-1 Early season curtailed due to COVID-19. Mid-December was off the charts. After a Christmas disastrous warm rain, there has been consistent cold weather allowing for lots of good snow-making weather, but January has been very light on natural snow. Economically, the ski areas seem to be doing well with people desperate to get outdoors and the absence of a super-spreader event associated with skiing have all been plusses. Despite the lack of January snow, with no January thaw, conditions remained very good. Early Feb. has seen lots of snow events opening glades and non-snowmaking terrain. Except for the ice-storm of Feb. 16, the month included many days of superb skiing. The 2nd half of Feb. and all of March included no natural snow. Long COVID-related lift lines continue to be a problem at most areas.
2019-2020: Early season: - No October skiing, but great from mid-November to mid-December. Xmas week was so-so. Except for MLK weekend, January featured a lot of wild temperature swings and not much natural snow. Snow tended to be better north of the MA border. Feb. was mediocre, with little new snow, but Feb. vacation week was good. Mar. was disturbed by COVID-19 and unusually warm temps. The last New England ski area open were shut down at COB on Mar. 18.
2021-22: No lift-serviced Oct. skiing. Nov. 5 to Thanksgiving Week: Just Killington and their 2-trails. By mid-December: Limited skiing at a small percentage of ski areas. Xmas week featured 3-days of rain and fog. By mid-January, only a handful of New England areas are more than half-open. No January thaw. February and March featured some good days, but very little natural snow and lots of warm weather. March was record warm with many areas closing by mid-March. Good spring skiing in April, wasn't enough to redeem this season. Killington made it to June 4, but they were the last open lift-serviced skiing by 3-weeks.
2015-6: After a flurry of mid-October skiing at Killington and Sunday River, things went dead for 3 weeks or so. December was one of the warmest in history with almost no snowmaking opportunities. Much of ski country did not even open until after Christmas. The absence of natural snow has minimized glade skiing. Mad River was open a grand total of 45 days and 1/3 of those were Practice Slope only. Killington ran until May 29 despite receiving only 1/3 of its normal snow total. Most areas closed 2 to 3 weeks earlier than usual. A few old timers remember seasons this bad but not in the last 10 years.
Comments always welcome.
I think how close Killington is to being complete in time for the World Cup is a good barometer for the early season. While I have faith they’ll pull it off each year some years seem to be right down to the wire.
This year I don’t think there was ever any doubt which is a good sign for a good early season.
Starting around thanksgiving until this past storm things were also pretty great in a lot of places. I had an amazing time skiing in a snowstorm the weekend before last which I don’t get on a lot of early season days.
It is easy to be pessimistic regarding what was lost. But we must all remember how many seasons have gone into Christmas with limited terrain. I've skied Jay in January with the same amount of terrain they currently have open.
That said, ski areas don't have too much to work with before the Christmas week. So, if this rating thread is biased towards holiday periods, perhaps pessimism is appropriate.
Otherwise, it is pretty solidly in the middle of the pack. This past weekend had better than expected skiing. No natural snow on the horizon does concern me, though...
EDIT: Just to clarify, I am not taking into account the non-skiing impact of the storm. Obviously, if you consider the overall damage the storm caused, not just to our snow pack and conditions, the season definitely just hit rock bottom.
thesnowway.com
I agree. And from reading the summaries of previous seasons above, it seems that while December rain and thaws are far from unusual, they rarely spell doom for the rest of the season.
It will be interesting to see how the loss in snowpack and infrastructure damage in parts of New England affect the economics of holiday week at ski areas.
I'm not kneejerk where one or two days elevates the season to the top or drags the season to the bottom.
If we recover by Christmas week, that's the end of the "early season" and I'd place it at 4 or 5.
https://m.facebook.com/groups/370214754012000/permalink/1074232333610235/?ref=share&mibextid=NOb6eG
This thread, "Rating the xxxx Season Versus the Last 10 Years" has been going on for a long time. If you look through just the last 10-years, most seasons had significant freeze/thaw cycles.
The fact is, this season, many areas had advanced runs open without snowmaking. That's unusual. A freeze/thaw cycle in December: That's normal!
Crotched Mountain does not have a monopoly on quality snowmaking and quality grooming. Our guns went on last night, even before temps hit wet bulb and I suspect we will have the two lost runs back online, possibly even by today.
I suspect the same will be the case with the other major players with significant snowmaking plants.
I see the next major indicator of where this season fits will be the skier visit numbers for the Christmas week.
I'm sorry, but I don't understand how anyone can just write this off as a normal freeze-thaw cycle. It's already been recognized as a 100 year flood by the National Weather Service. I guess this is just another example of how only the conditions at a select few mountain (Crotched, Killington, Sunapee) really matter when it comes to this thread. Maybe these pictures will help show a little more of how significant this event actually was?
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02s8ECvD2mKeHfDMRUEBA3zM1Kv39cPfgmDxfEA4jpzYaBkNhqidT51f1G2BHgxLFHl&id=100063524950386&mibextid=Nif5oz
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid03pDUbxpYhiV9Qve5Ukwqj76qfrpwrwNmtSXjD6E7QwiVD1Qq148vCDfMtynams5Dl&id=100063541090585&mibextid=Nif5oz
I didn't say it wasn't significant. I'm saying that it is only a couple of days in 100+ day season. And I'm sure there will be those who will ignore this and try to elevate it to #1 if we get a week of powder days in February. This event will not ruin the season; a week of powder days in February will not make this season.
But I think we should limit this evaluation to skiing. Otherwise, every blizzard or nor'easter needs to factor in damage to property, infrastructure, and loss of life.
A review of what is open at the areas that I frequent yields results not dissimilar to December thaws during previous seasons. Natural snow dependent MRG took it pretty bad, but will reopen tomorrow with the Practice Slope Chair.
Before the storm, we had a lot natural snow base and good snowmaking weather. We've seen much worse available terrain in mid- to late-December when the early season was horrifically warm and dry.
All Maine areas being closed for a few days of recovery is certainly significant and unusual, and should be factored in. But, from a skiing perspective, we've had worse during the past 10 years.
thesnowway.com
To be fair, you've done the same thing (held very positive/drastically different outlooks on the season) when the Maine resorts had much more favorable weather and snowfall than the balance of New England.
We're all guilty. I've done the same thing when we (Whaleback) had an abomination of a season and everyone else seemed to fair much better. It's all relative I guess.
Additionally, I've only been cross country skiing for 5 years, but this is by far the worst start to the season in that time. I've only been able to get out and ski once on natural snow this season.
Right there with 2015-2016 in my book and there's nothing a couple good weeks of riding earlier can do to change that IMHO. Still plenty of time to alter course, but up to now that's the facts.
Yep, I also know of a few. Quarry Road's alpine slope will finally open for the season this Saturday. Camden Snow Bowl pushed their opening day back until tomorrow. In southern New England, there are numerous ski areas, including Ski Bradford, which have yet to open. The only natural snow only ski area which has opened so far, that I know of, is Big Squaw/Big Moose, which opened for one weekend with just the beginner slope (They're natural snow only this season due to a dam failure in the storm.). Spruce Mountain has only been open for one day so far.
That said, an abysmal holiday week for ski areas. Every state has at least one area closed. Magic is running only their handle tow. I haven't had any interest in skiing during the past two weeks.
Could be on pace for a season like 21-22. There was a strong el nino in 15-16, hopefully we don't have a repeat of that season. Still too early to start those comparisons.
thesnowway.com
Back to square 1, maybe square 2 if you made enough snow.